Volume 11, Issue 2 (June 2026)
J Environ Health Sustain Dev 2026, 11(2): 2997-3007 |
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Ethics code: IR.QUMS.REC.1400.124
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Mansouri A, Jamali H A, Ranjbaran M, Jalali F. Analysis of Healthcare Waste Trends in Qazvin Province, Iran: A 9-Year Assessment with ARIMA-Based Forecasting and Evaluation of the COVID-19 Pandemic Impact. J Environ Health Sustain Dev 2026; 11 (2) :2997-3007
URL: http://jehsd.ssu.ac.ir/article-1-1048-en.html
URL: http://jehsd.ssu.ac.ir/article-1-1048-en.html
Social Determinants of Health Center, Research Institute Prevention of Non-Communicable Diseases, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
Abstract: (44 Views)
Introduction: Healthcare waste management poses significant environmental and public health challenges in Qazvin Province, Iran, particularly following increased infectious waste during the 2020–2022 COVID-19 pandemic. This study characterized HCW production patterns across hospital types and seasons and projected future trends using time-series modeling.
Methods: A descriptive-epidemiological design was used to analyze 108 monthly records (2013–2022) from all 16 hospitals in Qazvin Province. Waste was categorized into general, infectious, chemical, and pathological categories. Descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA, and independent t-tests were used for the analysis. An ARIMA model forecasted waste volumes through 2024, while an Interrupted Time Series analysis assessed the pandemic impact with March 2020 as the intervention point.
Results: The ARIMA (4,1,1) model predicted an increase in total HCW, from 8,500 kg/day in 2022 to 12,000 kg/day by 2024, driven by rising infectious and chemical waste. ITS analysis revealed a significant surge in infectious waste (β=+153.29, p<0.001) and a decline in general waste (β=-3571.59, p=0.001) post-pandemic. Seasonal variation was significant only for pathological waste (p=0.000), peaking in summer and autumn.
Conclusion: HCW generation in Qazvin is dynamic and influenced by institutional, seasonal, and epidemiological factors. This projected upward trend necessitates the implementation of adaptive, data-driven waste management strategies. Proactive policies must incorporate flexible capacity planning and enhanced segregation protocols to ensure environmental protection and public health safety, while accommodating healthcare expansion and future pandemic preparedness. These interventions should align with Sustainable Development Goals 3 and 12, respectively.
Methods: A descriptive-epidemiological design was used to analyze 108 monthly records (2013–2022) from all 16 hospitals in Qazvin Province. Waste was categorized into general, infectious, chemical, and pathological categories. Descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA, and independent t-tests were used for the analysis. An ARIMA model forecasted waste volumes through 2024, while an Interrupted Time Series analysis assessed the pandemic impact with March 2020 as the intervention point.
Results: The ARIMA (4,1,1) model predicted an increase in total HCW, from 8,500 kg/day in 2022 to 12,000 kg/day by 2024, driven by rising infectious and chemical waste. ITS analysis revealed a significant surge in infectious waste (β=+153.29, p<0.001) and a decline in general waste (β=-3571.59, p=0.001) post-pandemic. Seasonal variation was significant only for pathological waste (p=0.000), peaking in summer and autumn.
Conclusion: HCW generation in Qazvin is dynamic and influenced by institutional, seasonal, and epidemiological factors. This projected upward trend necessitates the implementation of adaptive, data-driven waste management strategies. Proactive policies must incorporate flexible capacity planning and enhanced segregation protocols to ensure environmental protection and public health safety, while accommodating healthcare expansion and future pandemic preparedness. These interventions should align with Sustainable Development Goals 3 and 12, respectively.
Keywords: Medical Waste, Time Series Analysis, Environmental Health, Statistical Models, Public Health Surveillance, Sustainable Waste Management.
Type of Study: Original articles |
Subject:
Air and waste management
Received: 2026/02/22 | Accepted: 2026/04/20 | Published: 2026/06/20
Received: 2026/02/22 | Accepted: 2026/04/20 | Published: 2026/06/20
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